ExxonMobil’s own climate science research, which began in the 1970s, accurately predicted the pace and severity of global warming, a new study finds, Andrew writes.
Why it matters: The paper is the first to examine the performance of Exxon’s internal and external climate modeling.
- The research adds a new layer to the investigative journalism and academic research collectively known as #ExxonKnew.
The big picture: Between 63% and 83% of the climate projections reported by Exxon scientists were accurate in predicting subsequent global warming, the study published in the journal Science shows.
- It provides more evidence that Exxon’s communication to investors and the public, which has played down the threats posed by climate change and cast computer models as uncertain, differed from what executives were told.
Zoom in: Exxon’s projections showed the world would warm at a rate of about 0.20°C per decade, which was in line with independent academic and government studies in the 1970s through the early 2000s.
- Its research also led to an accurate estimate of how much carbon dioxide could be emitted before the world would warm by more than 2°C.
- This implied that some of the company’s oil and gas holdings could become stranded assets, but such risks were not communicated outside the company, the study notes.
Of note: The study pegged the average skill scores of projections from Exxon’s in-house climate modeling as higher than what then-NASA scientist James Hansen famously provided to Congress in his 1988 testimony warning that human-caused global warming had begun.
How they did it: The researchers evaluated every global warming projection they could find from 32 internal documents produced by in-house Exxon scientists between 1977 and 2002, and 72 peer-reviewed studies authored or co-authored by company scientists between 1982 and 2014.
- They extracted and digitized the graphs, and quantitatively tested the predictions using established methods.
The intrigue: The new study is by researchers Naomi Oreskes and Geoffrey Supran, who have published qualitative studies on Exxon’s climate knowledge and public communications.
- Another co-author is climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
What they’re saying: “In essence, Exxon didn’t just know, they knew precisely,” said Supran of the University of Miami, via email.
The other side: Exxon dismissed the study’s findings while touting its climate research.
- “Some have sought to misrepresent facts and ExxonMobil’s position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by recasting well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign,” Exxon spokesperson Todd Spitler told Axios in a statement.
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