NOAA scientists pronounced La Niña’s official demise on Thursday, after sea surface temperatures moderated in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, Andrew writes.

The big picture: The ocean and atmosphere cycle responsible for flooding rains in Australia, devastating drought in the Horn of Africa, and a host of other extreme weather patterns, has given way temporarily to so-called La Nada conditions in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  • This means there is neither an El Niño nor a La Niña present.
  • An El Niño may be lurking around the corner, according to NOAA’s latest forecast.

Between the lines: NOAA’s outlook shows neutral conditions lasting through the spring and summer, with 60% odds of an El Niño developing in the fall.

  • La Niña tends to temporarily turn down the dial on global warming, whereas El Niño events ratchet up the heat even further.
  • It is likely that if an El Niño develops, monthly global temperature rankings would rise into the top five by later this year, with an annual temperature record more likely in 2024.

Yes, but: El Niño forecasts made at this time of year tend to have greater uncertainty than they do headed into the fall.

Meanwhile, on the extreme weather front, Central California faces a dangerous situation as a strong atmospheric river dumps up to a foot of rain on top of a massive snowpack.