The globe had its fourth-warmest February on record since instrument data began 174 years ago, NOAA said Tuesday, Andrew writes.

Why it matters: The global monthly data and annual outlook shows the year is already trending warmer than 2022. February’s data also allows scientists to take stock of how the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2022-23 ranked.

The big picture: February was the second-straight month in which global sea ice cover was the lowest on record, with Antarctic sea ice at a record low for its seasonal minimum.

  • The scarcity of Antarctic sea ice could be a sign that global warming is having a greater impact on the Southern Ocean, which might spell trouble for some ocean-terminating glaciers.
  • Without sea ice to put a lid on ocean heating, water temperatures can increase and melt ice shelves from below.
  • Record warm temperatures covered 4% of the Earth’s surface during February, but record cold conditions were not observed anywhere.

What’s next: According to NOAA, there is a 65% chance that 2023 will rank in the top five warmest years, and a greater than 99.5% chance of a top-10 warmest year. Last year was the sixth-warmest in NOAA’s rankings.