Wait, what? After previously signaling a stay-the-course posture, OPEC+ is slashing oil output by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day starting in May through year’s end, Ben writes.

Why it matters: The surprise announcement Sunday sent crude prices surging. Even after cooling off a little, prices are up over 6%, with the global benchmark Brent crude trading at $85 per barrel.

Driving the news: Saudi Arabia plans to shoulder 500,000 barrels per day of the reduction, calling the joint cuts a “precautionary measure” aimed at supporting oil market stability.

What they’re saying: “Saudi Arabia’s oil minister cemented his reputation as the Prince of Plot Twists,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a note.

Zoom in: Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon sees upside pressure of around $10 per barrel.

  • “From a supply side perspective, the cuts signal the group is willing to defend a price floor well above $80 per barrel and prioritize revenue versus market share,” he said in a note.
  • OPEC+ is worried about “recessionary indicators” worsened by the banking sector strains, Leon writes.

The intrigue: The White House is irked — and these reductions come on top of cuts unveiled in October that team Biden opposed.

“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a National Security Council spokesperson said, per Reuters.