Another severe weather outbreak is likely Tuesday, covering much of the same territory devastated late last week: from Iowa to Arkansas, Andrew writes.

Driving the news: This week’s storms would mark the third outbreak in as many weeks across the South and Midwest.

Zoom in: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated parts of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri as having a “moderate risk” for severe weather Tuesday, which is a level 4 threat designation out of 5.

Context: Climate change is altering the environment in which tornadoes and tornado outbreaks occur, and further studies are needed, Axios’ Rebecca Falconer and I write.

Meanwhile … This afternoon will bring official word from the California Department of Water Resources’ snow survey on whether the state’s extraordinary snowpack has set an all-time record.

  • The survey is timed for the point in the season when the snowpack tends to be deepest, with the greatest amount of water held within it.
  • Snow melt will keep reservoirs much more full during the dry season compared to recent drought years, but it’s also a growing flooding concern.
  • Weather outlooks show much milder air returning to the Golden State, kick-starting the state’s “Big Melt.”

What we’re watching: The reemergence of Tulare Lake in the San Joaquin Valley, and flooding of farms and communities.